These rankings may be some of the most unpredictable for this upcoming re-rank
- Penn State and FGCU seem to be locks for the top 2.
- Liberty just lost to Maryland and BARELY escaped Delaware.
- Rowan had no games last weekend, yet moved up to number 5? They had losses to TCNJ, Wagner, and Maryland (prior them beating Liberty).
- Delaware loses to Army by one by still retains #7 in the region.
- Delaware smokes rider
- Wagner splits with Army this past weekend
- Does Cinnci really deserve to be #6? They have an awfully weak schedule compared to some others.
I could see Rowan and Cinnci moving down, with Delaware and Maryland, maybe Army and Wagner moving up.
Thoughts
You’re right about PSU and FGCU, top 2 teams in SE without question. They could flip down the stretch, but I would bet PSU holds onto the 1 seed, and FGCU joins them at Nattys with the 2.
From there, Toledo more than certainly will take the 3 seed and need to play their way into the tournament. Liberty will likely hold on at 4.
As for the rest, I’d rank them like this as of now, which reflects where I think teams will end up come February:
- PSU
- FGCU
- Toledo
- Liberty
- Cincinnati
- Rowan
- Miami Ohio
- Delaware
- Maryland
- Rider
- Army
- Louisville
At regionals I’d expect
Louisville over Maryland
Rider over Army
Toledo over Louisville
Liberty over Rider
Delaware over Cincinnati
Miami over Rowan
Toledo over Delaware
Liberty over Miami
Your current top 4 teams will be your 4 nationals teams come Feb
Mostly agree, though Army and Louisville would get bumped for autobids from the ACC and Colonial leagues, so Maryland/Rider probably both win those games, then lose to Liberty/Toledo with the same ultimate outcome.
You were correct about top 4…
Still don’t understand how Rowan is ranked at #5 with losses to the teams they’ve lost to. After the top 2, it’s wide open really. Teams have been incredibly inconsistent, and that’ll either be a continuing trend or teams will start to lock up in terms of how they truly play. I said it before, Cincinnati and Miami play a rather weak schedule. Be interesting to see where everyone sits comes Christmas.
You are correct with the inconsistency of the league. Rowan’s loss to TCNJ & #13 Wagner hurt, but they are both better teams this year. And #9 Maryland is very good. Rowan lost twice to #1 Penn (5-4 & 4-1) once to #4 Liberty & once to D1 Villanova(2-1). In their wins they crushed their opponents, out scoring them 49-9. Should they be #5? I don’t know, the computer ranks them. Close losses to good teams mean a lot. they have to learn how to beat the big boys.
Back to talk about the shake-up for this weeks rankings. Unbelievable how Toledo didn’t drop. They get swept by Miami then get beaten by Cinnci? Then don’t understand how both of those teams jump Delaware. UD just played Penn State. Even though they lost, wouldn’t that go along the lines of how Rowan was at #5 the past two weeks? I think they should’ve retained #6 or maybe even moved up to number 5. Rowan loses to Rider, and they’re now where they belong (not in the top 5). I said it once and will say it again… the top 10 minus Penn and FGCU is WIDE open.
1 Pennsylvania State University 14-1-0 99.99 3.71 95.27 1.00
2 Florida Gulf Coast University (D2) 17-2-0 99.76 3.58 95.29 0.88
3 Liberty University (D2) 6-5-0 97.86 2.11 95.09 0.66
4 Toledo, University of (D2) 12-6-0 96.72 2.31 93.72 0.68
5▲ Miami University (D2) 16-2-0 96.37 3.88 91.59 0.88
6▲ Cincinnati, University of 20-3-0 95.79 3.27 91.91 0.86
7▼ Delaware, University of (D2) 12-9-0 95.79 1.09 94.13 0.57
8▼ Rowan University (D2) 7-8-0 95.76 1.85 93.41 0.50
9 Rider University 9-8-1 94.99 0.05 94.44 0.50
10 Maryland, University of (D2) 12-7-0 94.96 0.75 93.65 0.56
11▲ Ohio University (D2) 14-5-0 94.27 1.82 91.74 0.70
12▼ Army 8-6-1 94.21 0.00 93.60 0.60
13▲ Louisville, University of 11-10-0 93.68 0.14 93.02 0.52
14▲ Ohio State University 5-7-1 93.49 0.27 92.72 0.50
15▼ Wagner College
This is what regionals would look like with these rankings:
#12 CSCHL (Penn?) vs #9 Rider
#11 ACCHL (VTU?) vs #10 Maryland
CSCHL/Rider winner vs #4 Toledo
ACCHL/Maryland winner vs #3 Liberty
#8 Rowan vs #5 Miami
#7 Delaware vs #6 Cincinnati
Rowan/Miami winner vs Toledo
Delaware/Cincinnati winner vs Liberty
I think Liberty and Miami have the best shot with this configuration, but any one of the lower ranked teams could ride a hot goalie to an upset.
Do both of those leagues (acchl and cschl) get auto bids? It looks like only the CSCHL got an auto bid last year. Army was #11.
Both leagues get autobids, but last year UVA won the ACCHL and declined the autobid because they didn’t have the financials to commit, so Army got the invite as the next highest ranked team.
Edit: Note that VTU can’t win the ACCHL autobid because they switched leagues and have to wait four years for eligibility. So maybe GWU gets the bid this year.